The New Software Industry: Timothy Chou

The morning finished with Timothy Chou, author of The End of Software and the former president of Oracle’s online services group, discussing the radical changes in the software industry due to software-as-a-service. Anyone who entitles his talk “To Infinity and Beyond” and has a picture of Buzz Lightyear on the title slide is okay with me. 🙂

He looks at the economics of why the transformation is occurring, and encourages becoming a student of the economics in order to understand the shift. Considering a sort of Moore’s law for software, traditional software (e.g., SAP) costs around $100/user/month to licence, install and support in various configurations; SaaS (e.g., Salesforce.com) costs around $10/user/month; and internet applications (e.g., Google) are more like $1/user/month.

He makes the point that the SaaS revolution is already occurring by listing nine SaaS companies that have gone public (including Webex and Salesforce.com); these nine went from just over $200M in revenues in 2002 to $1.4B in 2006.

Chou gives us three lessons for the future:

  • Specialization matters. Think Google, which was originally an insanely simple interface for a single task: searching. Or eBay, which just does auctioning. This isn’t just a product functionality or distribution issue, however; the software development process has fundamentally changed. It’s now easier to become a software developer because of the tools, and this drives the development of niche applications. In a world where Citibank has more developers than Oracle, we’re not just buying software from the “professionals” any more; we’re creating it ourselves or buying it from much smaller players.
  • Games matter. Chou uses World of Warcraft as a collaboration example, and it’s a great one. People from all over the world, with different languages and ethnicity, come together for a common goal, then disperse when that goal is achieved. WoW makes specialized skills and skill levels transparent, so that you immediately know if another player’s skills are complementary to your own, and how good he is at that skill. In general, you can’t do that now in business collaboration environments, but it would be great if you could. Also of interest is the world of currency within these games, and how that currency is valued in the real world.
  • Service matters. The service economy is not just about human labour; service is information. Consider the information that Amazon has about books, from finding them to other user reviews to recommendations. The information is there, but some of it is hard to find/analyze. The “surface web” of approximately 100TB is what you could find on Google, but there’s a much deeper web of more than a million TB, mostly inside corporate firewalls. How much better service could we have if we had access to more of that information in the deep web?

The New Software Industry: John Zysman

John Zysman, a professor of Political Science at UC Berkeley, immediately followed Maglio with a related discussion on Services Transformation. The expectation was that Maglio and Zysman have diametrically opposed views and that their joint question period will degrade into fisticuffs — or at least a lively debate — but it turns out that they’re pretty closely aligned on many issues.

A generation ago, services (within a software product company) were seen as a sink hole of productivity, but are now considered to be sources of productivity. It’s not that the service sector has grown or has changed from agriculture to IT, it’s that the sector has been reorganized in significant ways. In order to navigate this, we need to understand three things: strategy and organization; tools; and rules and roles (social-political dynamics).

An example of this sort of transformation is what Zysman referred to as the “American Comeback”, driven by the new consumer electronics, with a shift from electro-mechanical to digital (think Walkman to iPod) as well as modularization and commoditization within the supply chain. He listed stages of service transformations, although I can’t do justice to an explanation of these:

  • Outsourcing
  • Changes in consumption patterns
  • Outsourcing household work
  • The algorithmic transformation: from revolution to delusion

Most of this transformation is based on a change in how services are performed and the application of technology to allow services to be performed in different ways and locations. I heard an interesting example of this last night while having dinner with some of the TIBCO people who I’ll be seeing at TUCON later this week: two of them were from the U.K., one of those two now living in the U.S., and we had a discussion about healthcare in the U.K., U.S. and Canada. One of them made the point that in the U.K., patients sit in the waiting room until the doctor comes out and calls them in, where as in both Canada and the U.S., multiple patients are taken simultaneously to separate examination rooms and prepped by medical assistants, then the doctor just goes from one room to another to do a more specialized part of the work. What’s really interesting is that U.K. and Canada both have socialized medicine, which would tend to favour the less efficient but total service U.K. model, except Canada has a shortage of doctors so has moved to the more efficient U.S. service model.

A couple of random ideas from his talk that I want to capture here for later thought:

  • Should we conceive a services stack?
  • Automating the codifiable parts of a process is the first step in the transformation.
  • By commoditizing a service, you may be “moving the whiteboards of innovation”, i.e., disabling the ability to have innovation in a service.

In discussing rules and roles, Zysman talked about how services are embedded social processes, and how we need to change the way that processes work. How did we end up talking about business process reengineering? I thought that I was taking a break from process today, but as it turns out, there is no escape.

The New Software Industry: Paul Maglio

Paul Maglio, a senior manager of service systems research at IBM’s Almaden Research Center, spoke to us on the science of service systems, looking at the services sector of the economy, including everything from high-end professional services to McJobs in the hospitality industry. The focus of much of his research is on high-value services that simply can’t be automated.

Harkening back to Cusumano’s talk, he showed where services generates 53% of IBM’s gross revenue, but only 35% of their pretax net income; because of that, they’re focussing on service innovation in order to be able to squeeze a bigger margin out of that services portion.

He showed a model of services as a system of relationships between a service provider, a service client and a service target (the reality to be transformed or operated on by the service provider for the sake of the service client). Service systems depend on value co-creation between the provider and the client. if the client wins to the detriment of the provider, it’s a loss leader; in the reverse situation, it’s coercion. If they both win, it’s co-creation.

Although there’s no equivalent to Moore’s Law for services, telling us where the efficiencies will be created in the future, there are some known factors that can be applied to make services more effective, both related to people (location, education) and technology.

In mapping profits against revenues, the steepest curve (biggest return) is information, then technology, then SaaS, then labour. However, most services are a combination of all of these things, so it’s considerably more complex to model.

The New Software Industry: Michael Cusumano

Michael Cusumano is with the MIT Sloan School of Management, and has written several books on the changing software industry; he spoke today about the changing business of software.

In general, there is a decline of new enterprise software product revenues, and growth in services and maintenance sales. There are a number of new business models, including SaaS and ad-supported software.

Software companies tend to move from being product companies to services or hybrid product/services companies (maintenance revenue is usually included in services). However, there’s a different evolution curve that shows where companies focus on product innovation, then on process innovation (e.g., making the product more efficiently), then on services innovation.

The number of publicly-owned software companies peaked in 1997 at around 400 companies. IT services firms peaked in 1999 at around 500 companies. Web companies, which can be launched with significantly less capital (due to distribution mechanisms and development tools/methodologies), had a peak in 1999 before dropping in the crash, but are now climbing to an even higher peak.

Cusumano showed a graph of three business model dimensions: revenue model, delivery model, and customers, with traditional software product vendors at the origin of the graph, and various other models scattered throughout the cube. He also asked the question, is the rise in services and new business models temporary or permanent? The “temporary” argument says that we’re in a transition phase between platform and business model innovations; the “permanent” argument (with which I agree) says that software is now commoditized and prices will fall to close to zero as we embrace SaaS and ad-supported models.

Being an MIT geek, Cusumano had slide after slide of data analysis about his research on software product companies. For example, average product company revenue crossed over in 2002 so that services revenue was larger than product revenue; also, firms at 24+ years of age have more services than product revenue. The age phenomena contributes to the date-based phenomena, since many of the large enterprise product vendors are reaching this level of age maturity now. There’s an interesting cycle where services are very attractive for revenue generation, but then reach a point (in terms of % of revenue) where they are performed relatively inefficiently and, due to lower profit margins, are not as profitable as product; eventually, as companies become better at providing services (e.g., reusability), it swings to a more positive contributor to profitability. Market cap follows a similar pattern, although the centre (when services are undesirable) portion of the graph is broader.

Similar things are happening with hardware companies: more than 50% of IBM’s revenue, for example, is from services.

He had some interesting comments on the way that software product companies should incorporate services into their business model: it should be planned and exploited as opposed to just happening by accident, as it does with many product companies.

He ended up with some key questions:

  • How to manage the mix of products, services and maintenance efforts and revenue within a product company.
  • How to “servitize” products, to make them less generic and more customizable.
  • How to productize services; a great point that he made here is that it’s best served by creating two professional services organizations with different mandates.

The New Software Industry: Ray Lane

I’m at the Microsoft campus in Mountain View attending the New Software Industry conference, put on by Carnegie Mellon West and the Haas School of Business. I interviewed a few of the people from CMU West a few months ago about the new Masters of Software Management program, and ended up being invited to attend here today. Since I’m down here for TUCON this week, it was just a matter of coming in a day early and fighting the traffic down from the city this morning (although I left San Francisco at 7:30 this morning, I still arrived late, around 9:15).

Unfortunately, I missed the brief opening address which, according to the program, featured Jim Morris, Dean of CMU West, and Tom Campbell, Dean of Haas, so my day started with Ray Lane of Kleiner Perkins (formerly of Oracle) talking about the personal enterprise, or what I would call Enterprise 2.0.

Lane started with a discussion about how the software industry is changing, including factors such as packaging (including SaaS) and vertical focus. I found it interesting, if not exactly surprising, that he has a very American-centric view of the industry, so that he’s really talking about the software industry in the U.S., not the global industry; he spoke about India and China gaining market share in software as some sort of external force as opposed to part of the industry.

He had some interesting points: a call to action, which including leveraging community power via mashups and other collaborative methods; and a look at how platforms are moving from monoliths to clouds (i.e., services exist in cloud and are called as required). He covered some basic about Web 2.0 and web-driven capabilities. Since I’ve been so immersed in this for such a long time, there wasn’t much new here for me, although he had some interesting examples, particularly about collaboration and user-driven content.

He talked about the “personal enterprise”, where consumer web applications inspire new enterprise applications, or what many of us have been talking about as Enterprise 2.0. He makes a great point that somehow, being at home allows us to just try something new online, whereas the act of going into the office makes us want to spend a year evaluating rather than just trying something, and how we need to change that notion.

He gave seven laws for Enterprise 2.0 applications:

  • serves individual needs
  • viral/organic adoption
  • contextual personalize information
  • no data entry or training required
  • delivers instantaneous value
  • utilizes community, social relationships
  • minimum IT footprint

I’d love to expand further on each of these, but I’m trying to get this conference blogging back to something like real-time, so that will have to wait for another post.

He finished up with some examples of personal enterprise applications, with some discussion about what each of them contributed to advancing software industry business models:

  • Services: Webex, Skype, RIM, Google
  • Applications: Salesforce.com, NetSuite, RightNow
  • Collaboration: SuiteTwo, Visible Path

Access to the Microsoft guest wifi is tightly guarded and requires an hour or so turnaround to get login credentials, so this first post is coming out late and the other will trickle along throughout the day. All of the posts for this conference are available here.

BEA Dev2Dev days

BEA is holding a series of half-day developer seminars in a number of cities in Europe and the Americas, focussed on building enterprise mashups with their new/rebranded en.terpri.se platform. I was excited to see that one will be in Toronto, since it seems like vendors always skip my hometown; however, I’m less excited to see that it’s the only one of the seminars to be held at the same time as their own user conference, which means that I have to miss it.

A month of travel

Forgive me readers, for I have slacked off. It’s been 8 days since my last blog post. I blame the Canadian government, who insist on me doing my personal taxes by April 30th.

I’ve had a number of vendor product demos over the past several weeks, and it’s time to start blogging about them before I start into a month of travel: I’m giving a presentation at the TIBCO user conference in San Francisco next week, then attending the BEA user conference in Atlanta the following week, a few days vacation in Nova Scotia after that, then on to Las Vegas for a presentation at the Shared Insights Portals and Collaboration conference. Watch for live blogging from all three conferences, although not from my vacation.

Enterprise 2.0 TV launches today

It slipped past the earlier announced launch date of April 9th, but it looks like Dion Hinchcliffe’s Enterprise 2.0 TV Show will launch today. As of 2am (ET), there’s only a short snippet available on the site, but I’m hopeful. I’m also hopeful for a subscription feed via iTunes so that I can watch this on my iPod, but I’m not holding my breath.

BrainStorm: Meeting my peeps in Chicago

I’m starting to see more and more familiar faces at these BPM conferences, and this one is no exception: I’ve met Gregg Rock and Tom Dwyer of BPMInstitute.org at a couple of conferences now, finally met Brett Champlin at the last Gartner conference, and Bruce Silver and I meet up so often that our spouses are starting to get suspicious. 🙂  There’s also the people who work for the vendors — I seem to see many of the same ones at every show, and these shows must be some small form of purgatory for them.

It’s also fun to meet people who I’ve only met online previously, and I’ve had a couple of those experiences here in Chicago. David Novick, who added a comment to my blog that turned into an email conversation, recognized me in one of the sessions — I guess that Rannie’s new headshot of me is paying off. At lunch, I happened to sit at the same table as Barbara Saxby from Ramco, who was on a webinar that I moderated last month. And Jean Campagna of Resolvit found me yesterday evening at the vendor showcase/drinks party to say that her colleague was sending me a hello: apparently her colleague back at the office has been reading my blog to Jean over the phone.